Thought Q1 was crazy? It's about to get even crazier with "AutoGPTs"!

Google is in big trouble. Here's why:

With GPT-5 expected to complete training in December, it seemed progress might slow. Giving Google, Apple, and others a chance to catch up.

But now, thanks to indie hackers and a VC that can't code, a whole new world of experimentation and progress has opened up.

A few days ago, I read this tweet thread from @yoheinakajima, a VC based in Seattle. He has created an experimental "AI founder" that can do tasks on its own called babyAGI.

I talked with him yesterday on video chat and learned a lot.

His story is incredible. He went from idea to code. From code to paper. Paper to viral tweet thread. Thread to open-source project on GitHub.

All in 3 days. Without being able to code.  All created with AI.

He fired up a @Replit and discussed the idea with GPT-4. Then fed it documentation from @LangChainAI and @pinecone.

It then created some code which he pasted into a Replit. The code had a few errors. He just kept giving the code to GPT to debug until it worked.

Then had it create a paper for him. Then a tweet thread based on the paper.

Check out this AI-generated diagram illustrating the process.

One GPT-4 acts as a task manager, keeping track of tasks and priorities. While another GPT-4 serves as a task creator. A third GPT-4 executes the tasks, with results saved in memory.

Theoretically, this could make GPT-4 self-improve. And carry out business tasks by itself. @yoheinakajima is considering using it as a VC associate for his fund.

He even has it set where he can get text messages to confirm actions.

And he's not the only one with this idea.

Yesterday I discovered AutoGPT created by @SigGravitas. They're blowing up on GitHub.

@karpathy, the ex-head of Tesla AI, stated it could be the next major frontier.

And @Altimor thinks something like this could possibly be a path to AGI.

Based on a poll by @SmokeAwayyy, others seem to agree.

It seems too simple to lead to AGI. But, as @ID_AA_Carmack stated last year on @lexfridman, AGI will likely be surprisingly simple.

So, what does this mean for Google and others?

@NickADobos nailed it.

OpenAI might have already won. The flywheel of improvement is spinning too fast now. OpenAI has a killer culture + plugins + hacker community.

Meanwhile, based on this tweet from @ricburton, it sounds like Google's culture is...different.

So what is Google doing in response? Pushing for regulation.

@gregisenberg thinks it's a move to slow things down. I agree.

And pushing out products that are really bad in comparison to ChatGPT. But claiming that is on purpose, as noted by @buccocapital.

Google is increasingly full of ads and bad content, and its problem will worsen as people mass-produce AI content. When ChatGPT solves the 'confident bullshit' problem, I'll probably rarely use Google.

In conclusion, community-created experiments like babyAGI and Auto-GPT are a big deal. They allow GPT-4 to keep improving while OpenAI builds GPT-5.

OpenAI is further ahead than people realize. And Google is in big trouble. If they didn't have YouTube, I'd even say they might be screwed.

As a disclaimer, it's worth noting that some people aren't impressed with babyAGI and Auto-GPT, such as @ctjlewis. And the tech is still very experimental.

And as @icreatelife stated, based on technical definitions, we're not close to AGI. But I have a feeling by next year, this will be heavily debated.

And many smart people, such as my friend @bilawalsidhu, think it's too soon to count Google out.

And who knows, maybe they're a sleeping giant and they'll respond in a way that shocks and awes.  But I'll believe it when I see it.

Here's the link to babyAGI:

GitHub - yoheinakajima/babyagi

Contribute to yoheinakajima/babyagi development by creating an account on GitHub.

GitHubyoheinakajima

And link to Auto-GPT: https://github.com/Torantulino/Auto-GPT

I'm trying both of these today and will be sharing what I learn along the way, attempting to automate parts of my business. Or creating new business units.

Will it work? I guess we're about to find out. :)